Planning a CBN product launch can be a daunting undertaking. You have so many things to consider including product development, dosing, package design, compliance oversight, and go-to market strategy just to name a few. At best, it takes three months to launch, but realistically if you launch within six months you’re lucky. With all of this to keep track of, you might not have the time or resources to do an in-depth competitive analysis, or market analysis. So how can you improve the process?
Product planning affects every aspect of your business, especially cash flow! Knowing how many units to produce in your initial launch is a crucial piece of a successful launch and often the hardest to anticipate, particularly when launching with an ingredient that is brand new to both the market and your consumer base. That’s why we’ve put together this blog, to help you figure out:
HOW MANY UNITS SHOULD I PRODUCE FOR MY INITIAL PRODUCTION RUN?
We’ve also included a simple demand planning calculator, which once you’ve gone through our data analysis, it will help you to make the best purchasing decision so you buy just the right amount CBN. Not too much, not too little.
Using data provided by Headset analytics, we will show you how much brand share existing CBN products are capturing from some of the nation’s leading brands. This is an excellent tool to use when formulating your projection hypothesis. If you haven’t yet seen our previous blog post – CBN Q4 Market Report, take a look, not only will it confirm the huge market opportunity of CBN-infused products, it will also help to form the basis of your competitive analysis.
Breaking the product planning process into defined steps can help to simplify this otherwise overwhelming process. Consider our suggested steps below and apply as you may to your brand’s unique systems:
1. Know your COmpetition
First, let’s take a look at your market to see what the competition has done and if it has been successful.This step is the cornerstone of a successful product launch, so it is important to be thorough. At a minimum answer the following questions:
- What CBN products are already on the market?
- What is the average retail price?
- What CBN dosages and ratios?
- How well are these products selling?
Steps 2 and 4 might be difficult if you don’t know where to look. We recommend purchasing data from Headset analytics to stay up to date with current market trends and sales numbers.
Pay attention to how the most successful products are being positioned and marketed. Right now, CBN is primarily being marketed as a sleep aid and with great success. But, it may be worth marketing a product towards consumers who want a more relaxing, less anxious experience to set your product apart.
2. Know Yourself
Now conduct a self assessment, and be as honest and objective as possible. It’s too easy to drift off into dreamland but it’s prudent to be realistic about your position in the market and your brand identity. Not to say you shouldn’t set lofty goals for yourself, just take measured steps to get there.
All of these questions should be closely examined before you plan projections for your CBN product launch.
- What is your target demographic for this product?
- How many units is your company currently selling quarter?
- What is your growth rate?
- Do you have a similar product, like a CBD/THC 1:1 with historical data that you can use as a comparison?
Consider that when you launch a new product, other SKUs may experience a decline in sales. For example our most recent data for the Oregon market shows market share of THC-only edibles slowly declining as CBN products grow to a whopping 9% in March 2021!
This is a natural cycle and as the industry develops so will consumers demand for new and more innovative products.
3. Calculate Demand with Market Data
Like CBD products before CBN, multi-cannabinoid blends are doing exceptionally well in recreational markets. Effect based products that focus on the synergistic experience of multiple cannabinoids are trending and will help to drive consumer awareness. We believe this is a trend that will continue to grow and attract a wider consumer base as the legal cannabis market continues to expand to new states.
But how do you anticipate demand for these new products? While the CBN market is still in its infancy and there are few products available, we can now look at how those products are performing and if their sales are still growing after the initial novelty of them wanes.
Current data shows that CBN products in the top 4 brands (Wyld, Gron, Kiva, and Cheeba Chews) we’ve analyzed make up an average of 18% of brand share across all of their markets in the last quarter. With sales growth continuing its upward trend upward at a rate of 61% over Q4 for the same products.
Based on your current quarterly sales unit volume, how many units would you need to produce if sales of your CBN product mirrors the industry average of 18% highlighted above?
4. Use our Demand Calculator to Project
Now we can apply this information to the FloraWorks Demand Planner calculator to estimate how many units you will need for your first quarter and subsequently how much CBN you will need to complete that production run. Simply enter your estimated market share, we recommend starting conservatively with 10-12% for the first quarter. Split that number between however many SKU’s you have. Knowing how to split this number may also prove to be a little difficult but that again is where a solid competitive analysis comes in handy. Which leads us to step 5. .
5. TALK TO AN EXPERT ON CBN
We recognize that we can only cover the very tip of the iceberg when it comes to the intricacies of a new product launch. Yet it is our aim to provide you with as much support and information as possible. In addition to our teams combined 25+ years of cannabis and hemp industry experience, we also comb through CBN sales data on a weekly basis. When you partner with us we gain access to our knowledge and experience because we recognize that we are only as strong as our business partners. Please let us know how we can help.
We will help you sort through industry data to plan your successful CBN product launch!